Laurie, an avid golfer gives herself a 70% more chance of breaking par(scoring less than 72 on a round of 18?

laurie, an avid golfer gives herself a 70% more chance of breaking par(scoring less than 72 on a round of 18 holes) if the weather is calm but only 15% chance of breaking par on windy days. The weather forcecast gives 40% probabilty of high winds tomorrow. What is the likelihood that laurie will break par tomorrow, uming that she plays one round of golf.